Tensions between China, Taiwan, and the US haven’t been this high in years according to experts. In response to a potential visit to Taiwan from House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, China’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian warned on Tuesday that China will respond with “forceful measures” should Speaker Pelosi step foot on the island. “If the U.S. side obstinately clings to this course, China will definitely take resolute and forceful measures to firmly defend its national sovereignty and territorial integrity,” Zhao said. Pelosi would be the highest ranking official to step foot on Taiwan since the then-House Speaker Newt Gingrich in 1997. And to make matters more tense, on Tuesday, China demanded the US immediately cancel a recent $108 million dollar arms deal to aid Taiwan in defense of a potential military conflict between the self-governing island and its neighbor. According to Taiwan’s defense ministry, China’s People’s Liberation Army has conducted 555 sorties or military operations over the first half of the year in Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone (AZID). 398 of these have involved combat aircraft including fighter jets, bombers, and attack helicopters.
Historians believe that China first exerted control over the island during the Qing dynasty of the 1600s. In 1895 China lost the territory to Japan as a result of the First Sino-Japanese War. 50 years later in 1945, China took back the island after Japan’s defeat post-World War II. Led by the Kuomintang (KMT), the Chinese nationalists ruled under the Republic of China (ROC) with Nanjing as their capital. The rival Chinese Communist Party led by Mao Zedong clashed with the nationalist forces, and a bloody civil war ensued. In 1949, the CCP defeated the KMT, and they fled to Taiwan establishing their capital at Taipei. In mainland China, the CCP established power with Beijing as their capital under the People’s Republic of China (PRC). Since this breakup, both states have claimed to be China’s sole, rightful government.
Today, the ever-increasing authoritarian Chinese regime claims the island as its own territory, and self-governing, democratic Taiwan claims its independence and sovereignty free of Chinese dominion. China and Taiwan are only about 100 miles apart. To put things into perspective, that’s roughly the same distance between Florida and Cuba. Taiwan is a valuable asset to China. China’s primary goal is becoming the world’s foremost superpower; seizing control of Taiwan would help move China one step closer to that goal. Developing a strong military presence in the first island chain would give China access to major shipping routes in Asia. If you look at the map below, Taiwan is positioned at the forefront of the so-called “first island chain” as shown below. Because of its proximity to US bases in Guam and Hawaii, the first island chain is essential to US foreign policy.
Taiwan’s semiconductor manufacturing capability also plays a role in this China-Taiwan chess match. Virtually all modern devices are composed of semiconductors, and 64% of the world’s chips come from Taiwan. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, or TSMC, alone accounted for 53% of total chip foundry revenue in 2021. These chip foundries manufacture semiconductors for many companies like Apple, Nvidia, Intel, AMD, and Qualcomm who design but don’t manufacture their own chips. Conquering Taiwan would greatly increase China’s market share of the global chip market, giving it more economic power over the US, which heavily relies on Taiwan’s chip production.
When it comes to Chinese-Taiwan relations, the US has long maintained a foreign policy of “strategic ambiguity,” which makes it unclear what the US would do in the event of an attack. However, President Biden said in May that the US would defend Taiwan militarily should China attempt a full-scale invasion. "We agree with the One China policy. We signed on to it, and all the attendant agreements made from there, but the idea that it can be taken by force, just taken by force, is (just not) appropriate. It will dislocate the entire region and be another action similar to what happened in Ukraine," President Biden said. Under the “One China” policy, the US recognizes Taiwan as part of China. However, Washington doesn’t support China’s forceful annexation of Taiwan as its own territory.
For the most part, foreign policy experts agree that a full-scale invasion and all-out war between China and Taiwan is very unlikely. Despite China’s military dwarfing that of Taiwan’s, a full-scale invasion would be very costly and disastrous for not only China and the rest of the world. Analysts agree that China recognizes this fact. China has tacitly supported Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and many strategists believe that it’s observing the Western response to that invasion. Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen has not gone as far as to formally declare Taiwan independence to avoid any adverse reaction from China